Defossilising aviation with e-SAF

The goal of transitioning the aviation sector to battery electric, hydrogen electric, and/or hydrogen combustion systems faces major technical challenges, necessitating a reliance on liquid hydrocarbons for many years to come, particularly when it comes to long haul flights or the decarbonization of existing aircraft. While progress in reducing aviation sector emissions can be achieved through technical innovations and operational improvements, remaining hydrocarbon fuel demand will have to be covered with e-SAF, which offers the advantage of nearly unlimited scalability. The major task in the coming years will be to advance learning curves and exploit economies of scale in order to realize the greatest possible reductions in e-SAF production costs.

Far from relying on individual measures, policymakers should strive to adopt comprehensive regulatory packages that target actors throughout the fuel supply chain. The coordinated introduction of such measures in numerous countries would help to reduce the risk of market fragmentation and carbon leakage. Accordingly, international cooperation on e-fuel investment and regulatory policy is essential.

The following princi­ples should apply to international cooperation, standards, and certification systems: (1) The supply of renewable electricity to the domestic economy and population should have priority over the production of e-fuels for export; (2) e-SAF projects should rely exclusively on additional renewable energy capacity that is developed as a supplement to domestic renewable needs; (3) such supplemental capacity should be developed in a manner that supports local infrastructure expansion and economic development; and (4) renewable electricity should be used as efficiently as possible in e-fuel production countries, with priority given to direct electric applications, such as electric vehicles.

Projected global e-SAF production in 2030 correspond to around 3% of the EU’s current jet fuel demand. Accordingly, for the meaningful decarbonization of aviation, it is necessary not only to realize currently announced projects but also significantly expand the number of projects (both large and small) in the development pipeline. In the area of carbon sourcing, additional R&D is needed to improve technological solutions (including in particular direct air capture, or DAC) and enable widespread adoption.

An effective strategy for ramping up e-SAF production must ensure ample renewables generation, the sustainable sourcing of carbon, and viable models for project financing. Policymakers must also devote attention to steering the production and use of e-SAF in a manner that serves climate policy goals. The establishment of robust international standards will play an important role in this regard.